A leading games industry analyst has argued that the bulk of Gears of War: E-Day’s earning potential will be swallowed by its inclusion in Xbox Game Pass, as the title prepares for its October launch. Rhys Elliott of Alinea Analytics released a report today examining the game’s monetization strategy, its initial Steam sales, and the lingering possibility of a PlayStation 5 port in the future.
According to Elliott’s data, E-Day has already surpassed 120,000 copies sold on Steam, generating more than $7 million in revenue. The game is scheduled to arrive on October 6, though players willing to pay extra can jump in as early as October 1. For those planning to dig in on day one, the official global launch times for E-Day are now available.
A Strong Steam Start, But a Ceiling Looms
Elliott’s figures suggest that E-Day has already sold more than twice the number of copies that Halo: Campaign Evolved moved over a comparable window. Still, the analyst cautioned that the game is unlikely to reach 1 million copies on Steam, a figure that underscores the modest commercial ceiling for the title on the platform.
The data arrives at a moment when Microsoft is recalibrating how it treats its biggest franchises within Game Pass. The company has already pulled several key titles from the service, a move widely attributed to lost revenue. Microsoft’s Activision division, for instance, no longer delivers new Call of Duty games to Game Pass at launch, with this October’s Modern Warfare 4 not expected to arrive until Fall 2027. Xbox CEO Asha Sharma has indicated the company may begin “windowing” other titles as well, presumably to extract more direct sales revenue.
“Console as we know it is over for Xbox – and has been for a while. There’s no turning that ship. But they still need to pretend to care until they’ve transitioned to pastures where they can return to growth (if they succeed).”
Rhys Elliott, Alinea Analytics
The Game Pass Cannibalization Problem
Elliott’s central claim is that E-Day’s move into Game Pass will cannibalize the majority of its full-price sales. The tension between subscription revenue and direct sales is not new to Microsoft. In 2023, the company openly acknowledged that putting games into Game Pass cannibalizes full-game sales, while simultaneously noting that a game coming to Game Pass can actually help improve sales in certain scenarios.
Previously, Elliott suggested that Gears of War: E-Day, alongside Clockwork Revolution, are being sent out to die due to their exclusivity to Xbox. Both titles are coming to PC, but not PS5.
Talking to GameSpot, Elliott argued that Microsoft will never succeed in the console market, and that promising fans exclusive games to drive console sales will make no meaningful difference. “A Gears console exclusive does not shift meaningful numbers of Series X units,” he said. “Exclusivity as a hardware-driver is over for them, because the install base it would drive simply isn’t responsive enough to justify the cost of building hardware at a 5x component premium. And those games are on Steam anyway.”
Elliott went further, describing E-Day and Clockwork Revolution as “sacrificial lambs for hearts-and-minds, not economics,” a framing that suggests the titles exist more to win over players than to generate profit.
The PS5 Port Question
The report also addressed rumors that Microsoft canceled a PS5 port of E-Day. Elliott argued that the company should not have done so, noting that bringing the game to PlayStation would have “added some much-needed extra revenue.” While E-Day is not coming to PS5 at launch, Elliott foresees a port reaching the market “at some point.”
The situation has been muddled by conflicting statements from Microsoft. There was obvious evidence of a PS5 edition of E-Day, yet Microsoft denied that it canceled a PS5 version at the last minute, while not denying the port’s existence. Adding to the confusion, Microsoft’s Aaron Greenberg has stated that E-Day is not a timed-exclusive for Xbox. Yet Greenberg said in 2021 that Starfield was not a timed-exclusive on Xbox, only for it to then come to PS5 — a pattern that has left some observers skeptical of Microsoft’s release claims.
Looking Ahead
As E-Day approaches its October 6 launch, the debate over Microsoft’s monetization strategy is likely to intensify. With the game already on Steam and headed for Game Pass, players can expect to see how Elliott’s cannibalization theory plays out in practice. Whether a PS5 port materializes — and when — remains uncertain, but Elliott’s analysis suggests it is only a matter of time. For now, the title stands as a case study in how Microsoft’s subscription-first approach is reshaping the economics of its own franchises.
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