Microsoft’s console exclusive Gears of War: E-Day, which launched this week, has sold approximately 230,000 copies so far, according to a report by Rhys Elliott of Alinea Analytics. Steam accounted for 168,000 of those sales, while Xbox—across console and PC—made up the remaining 62,000.
Straight sales figures do not tell the whole story, however, as E-Day is available on Game Pass. Elliott said Alinea’s data showed that 1.7 million people acquired the game through their subscription rather than buying a copy outright.
There is further nuance to those numbers: Elliott noted that 722,000 of the 1.7 million players who accessed E-Day via Game Pass purchased the $30 Premium upgrade, which granted early access and additional content.
“So despite selling far fewer copies on Steam, Xbox accounts for almost three-quarters of the revenue (roughly $26 million of the $37 million, versus about $11 million on Steam). So ‘230,000 copies’ undersells the paying audience. Including the 722,000 upgrades, nearly 950,000 people actually paid something for E-Day.”
Rhys Elliott, Alinea Analytics
Elliott characterized these figures as “soft numbers” at a time “when Xbox badly needs revenue wins,” adding that the game’s $70 edition is now “functionally dead on Xbox.” He argued that many players who paid $30 for five days of early access would otherwise have purchased the full version.
More to the Story
Game Pass generates recurring revenue for Xbox, bringing in nearly $5 billion over the latest fiscal year. E-Day’s inclusion adds value to subscribers but also raises questions about the broader model. Elliott said Game Pass is no longer growing, putting Xbox “at a crossroads.”
Xbox CEO Asha Sharma has alluded to this as well, stating that Game Pass was one of Phil Spencer and Sarah Bond’s big bets that did not pay off.
“Our core business weakened, and we added more teams, more investment, and more time, hoping for a better outcome,” she said.
Asha Sharma, Xbox CEO
Microsoft spent billions acquiring developers in an effort to funnel content into Game Pass. The strategy did not work, and Xbox has since made major changes—including removing the biggest day-one release it ever had with the Call of Duty franchise. New releases are no longer added at launch.
“When a game this bloody awesome and well-reviewed does this softly on its home platform, the model—not the game—gets brought into question,” Elliott said.
Rhys Elliott, Alinea Analytics
Mat Piscatella of Circana reminded readers that E-Day’s revenue was not entirely cannibalized through Game Pass, since players must pay $23 per month for the subscription. He also pointed out that not everyone who played via Game Pass would have bought the game outright.
About a PS5 Version
Many expected Microsoft to release E-Day on PS5, partly because company documents indicated a version was in development and because Gears of War Reloaded came to PS5 last year. A PS5 edition was reportedly canceled at the last minute; Microsoft denied this, but no one believes that.
Aaron Greenberg has said E-Day is not a timed exclusive for Xbox, meaning it may never arrive on PS5. However, he said the same thing about Starfield before it eventually came to Sony’s console.
Elliott previously said Gears of War: E-Day and Clockwork Revolution are being “sent out to die” due to their exclusivity to Xbox. They are coming to PC but not PS5.
“Console as we know it is over for Xbox—and has been for a while. There’s no turning that ship. But they still need to pretend to care until they’ve transitioned to pastures where they can return to growth (if they succeed),” he said.
Rhys Elliott, Alinea Analytics
Elliott added that an exclusive does not shift meaningful numbers of Series X units and called the games “sacrificial lambs for hearts-and-minds, not economics.”
Sequel Possibilities
Whether there will be a sequel to E-Day remains to be seen. The Coalition’s Mike Crump said the game creates a “great foundation” for the franchise to grow and stated that a potential sequel could be made much faster.
Microsoft bought the Gears of War series from Epic in 2014 for an undisclosed sum.
There have been significant changes at Xbox as part of Sharma’s effort to “reset” the business. This has included mass layoffs, studio closures, and game cancellations. Recently, Sharma said Xbox was at an all-time low but is now growing again, though she did not provide data to support her claims.
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