For weeks, the rumored price tag of Hideo Kojima’s Physint — the spiritual successor to the Metal Gear Solid franchise — has dominated industry chatter, with a widely repeated figure of around $400 million floating around the gaming press. That number, however, is now being pushed back by two of the most reliable sources in the business. Bloomberg’s Jason Schreier and Windows Central report that the Xbox-backed project was signed for “significantly less,” casting doubt on the $400 million estimate that first surfaced during a recent industry broadcast. The correction arrives at a tense moment for the publisher, as the claim has become entangled with broader questions about Xbox’s strategy amid layoffs and studio restructuring.
The Origin of the $400 Million Figure
The speculation traces back to The Game Business Show, which aired on September 24. During the program, Christopher Dring briefly suggested that Physint carried a budget of roughly $400 million. The timing proved politically awkward: the comment landed shortly after Xbox signed a publishing deal for the project while simultaneously laying off hundreds of developers and restructuring several of its studios. The combination of a big-budget claim and a period of contraction produced a mixed response from the community, with many questioning whether the figure even held up to scrutiny.
Dring has since backtracked on his claim on X, pointing to an earlier post where he wrote that he had “heard everything from $300 million to $600 million” about the budget during the Tokyo Game Show. He added that “whether Xbox paid that, I don’t know” — effectively admitting the number was hearsay picked up at an industry event rather than an official figure confirmed by The Game Business.
Reporters Push Back on the Ballpark
Other journalists moved quickly to temper the enthusiasm around the number. Schreier explained that he is usually “hesitant to get into exact numbers without seeing documentation or corroborating them with multiple firsthand sources.” He noted, however, that “someone at Xbox with firsthand knowledge of the deal told me that they signed Physint for significantly less than this.” Windows Central backed that up, with Xbox sources telling the publication that the project cost “far lower” and a “fraction” of the supposed $400 million figure.
While neither source is offering a hard number, the consensus among the reporting is clear: the project’s actual budget sits well below the widely circulated estimate. The discrepancy highlights how easily a single offhand remark at a live event can be amplified into a headline figure — and how quickly that figure can be challenged once it enters the public domain.
A Culture of Budget Secrecy
Video game budgets have long been shrouded in mystery, with most major companies refusing to publicly reveal their spending. Kojima Productions, in particular, has told people not to trust information they don’t hear from official sources. Given that stance, it is entirely possible that the true cost of Physint will never be officially confirmed — and certainly not this far ahead of launch.
Even so, the reporting is valuable for what it reveals about the industry’s shifting economics. The discourse around Physint’s budget ultimately stems from Xbox making a major investment in it and OD while laying off developers and shuttering studios. It underscores how expensive AAA gaming has become, and how the publisher is now leaning on the biggest intellectual properties and developers it can find to carry its future.
Looking Ahead
Whatever Xbox ultimately spent on Physint, the decision represents a reallocation of resources. That is money the company reportedly no longer wanted to invest in studios such as Double Fine, Compulsion Games, Undead Labs, Ninja Theory, and Arkane Studios. As the project moves closer to release, expect the budget debate to continue — but with the most credible sources now signaling that the true figure is likely a fraction of the $400 million that first made headlines.
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