China’s DRAM to slash hardware prices from June 2026, analysts say

In a stunning financial revelation that has rattled the global semiconductor arena, a new forecast predicts that the commercial value of computer memory will hit its zenith by mid‑2026—well ahead of the price collapse that analysts had all but accepted would arrive only in 2027.

At the heart of this warning is analyst Karl Ackerman, who has decisively shifted his outlook. He now asserts that the average selling prices of both DRAM and NAND will reach their apex in the middle of 2026, overturning the Wall Street consensus that had pegged the peak for mid‑2027.

Ackerman’s rationale is clear: the surge in costs driven by the AI boom is set to reverse, with prices beginning to tumble quarter after quarter starting early next year. He specifically cites the aggressive expansion of Chinese memory giants such as CXMT (Changxin Memory Technologies) and Yangtze Memory Technologies, whose increased supply is expected to flood the market.

Adding to the pressure, Counterpoint Research warns of a 14% drop in global smartphone shipments—a consequence of the inflated prices that have forced other foundational industries to slash their tech consumption. This contraction further amplifies the oversupply scenario, accelerating the anticipated price decline across the board.

When analysts warned that Micron Technology’s prices would plunge sooner than expected, the stock market reacted sharply, sending the chip‑maker’s shares down more than five percent and rattling the stability of rivals such as SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. The shockwave prompted nine U.S. trade associations to draft an open letter to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, demanding urgent protective measures amid a bleak macroeconomic outlook.

FactSet’s financial platform highlighted a significant uptick in these companies’ figures, prompting Ackerman to state plainly that “this scenario translates into slower revenue growth, slimmer profits, and an oversupply of inventory over the next two years.” Yet, outlets like Barron’s argue that chip firms remain undervalued relative to AI spending, while other experts dismiss the forecast as exaggerated, noting that China’s vast domestic market will absorb its own components without diverting large volumes of global supply to U.S. chains.

Despite the anticipated price decline, the analyst maintained a positive outlook for Micron, emphasizing that long‑term contracts would act as a protective shield for the company. The sector’s future now hinges on this stark warning, compelling investors to monitor the market closely in the coming months.